Introduction
It is important to distinguish between

• the main factors influencing cycling
• the official strategy for bicycle promotion
• the actual initiatives taken to promote cycling
• other developments influencing cycle use.

So far as the main factors are concerned there is a considerable - though not full - knowledge about the issue, and research is still going on nationally as well as internationally.

What makes people use the bicycle?
Relevant factors to take into account are:

• infrastructure, climate and topography
• availability of bicycles
• availability of public transport
• availability of cars
• behaviour of other road users
• social climate for cycling

It is generally assumed that cycling is promoted by a good climate, a flat area and by providing special infrastructure for cyclists, e.g. bicycle tracks.

It is, however, far from as simple as that. There are examples of hilly areas with a considerable amount of cycling, of cities with no special infrastructure for cycling but a lot of cyclists and of very cold areas where people still use the bicycle a lot, even at wintertime. So far as climate is concerned, actually, it looks like that high temperatures are a more important deterrent to cycling than a generally cold weather.

In Denmark the strongest factor of all is car ownership and car accessibility. When people have a car they tend to use it for almost everything, independent of the distance or necessity of using a car. Only when car use is restrained by parking fees or other impediments car owners tend to cycle. This is probably the main reason for a steady increase on bicycle traffic in Copenhagen in the last 15 years, where cycling has declined at the national level. One can say that cars have a double effect on cycling. Not only is it tempting to use a car, if one has such a vehicle. Increase in car use on top of that has a negative effect on cycling, as it results in less attractive conditions in the streets.

There is also a competition between bicycles and public transport. Experience shows that reduced service of the public transport results in a considerable increase of cycling, and that improved quality of the public transport on the other hand leads reduces the number of cyclists.

The actual speed and degree of care taken by the motorists has quite a big influence on whether people wish to cycle. Provision of separate cycle tracks usually - but not necessarily - make somewhat more people cycle, sometimes even a lot more. Reducing car speeds in order to obtain a more pleasant traffic environment can however have the same effect.

It is beyond the scope of this paper to go in more detail with the factors influencing cycling.

What is the Danish government strategy?
It is official policy in Denmark to "promote safe cycling", e.g. at the same time to reduce the risk and severity of bicycle accidents and to increase the number of kilometres cycled.

The strategy of the government mentions a number of initiatives:

• a nation-wide campaign for transferring car transport to bicycles
• systematic bringing about figures on bicycle use and bicycle accidents
• information to municipalities and counties about how to favour the bicycle
• advice services on traffic safety in businesses
• seminars about traffic safety and means to promote bicycle traffic
• economic support to new initiatives and research- and development projects

The target is to transfer 4% of the car-kilometres to bicycle from 1993 to 2005. This is quite ambitious, and implies about a doubling of the bicycle traffic. In practice Denmark has, generally, experienced a decrease in the use of bicycles since 1993.

Realisation of the government strategy
The above mentioned strategy was published in 2000.

Since then a comprehensive book, also available in English under the title "Collection of cycle concepts" has been issued by the Road Directorate and sent to all local road authorities, two conferences on cycling have been held by the Ministry of Transport. Also, steps have been taken to address businesses on road safety issues.

Funds administrated by the Road Directorate has also, as well before as after the strategy was published, given support to various bicycle promotion projects.

The Ministry has not yet managed to organise a nation-wide campaign for bicycle promotion, but it supports a successful bicycle to work campaign organised by the Danish Cyclist Federation. There has also been delays in the systematic publishing of bicycle related figures.

In general, however, the strategy has been effective to a reasonable degree.

Other factors influencing cycling
As mentioned the most important factor influencing cycle use is probably car ownership. Cars are rather expensive in Denmark due to a high taxation. People are, however, getting richer, and the car ownership has risen considerably, with a decrease in bicycle use as a result.

Another result of the rising welfare has been a decrease in health due to lack of physical exercise. There is an increasing awareness that the tendency not to move, especially among children, has serious, negative consequences.

In the Danish programme for public health, traffic accidents have been identified as one of the main sources of lost lifetime years. On top of this several of the other major disease categories are linked to lack of physical exercise.

The implication of this - that increased cycle use can have a tremendous, positive effect - is slowly starting to be realised by the professionals working in the health area. This, in turn, will give rise to new initiatives in the favour of cycling. Some cycle to school campaigns have already been carried through with success.